Wednesday 17 March 2010

Bullshit Bingo... requires no further comment

Yo-yo effect


To make things easier>> how do you quantify the amount, speed and exact moment of bounce when, unlike in the above contraption you do not know the length of the cord andthe weight of the Yo-yo?

And what if you find that the cord has been substituted by an elastic band? How does THAT change the outcome ?

A simple Pulley

File:Jennas Pulley.jpg

A" pulley does not offer a mechanical advantage, but it does aid in changing the direction of the applied force on the load".

How does this relate to Dax and related markets?

Discuss

Tuesday 16 March 2010

Out again

Pretty fast turnaround on the Dax today.

Hit sell signal this morning with 5950 as entry level, but have cut earlier because of both the time stop getting close (6 hours) and the fact that both Bunds and EURJPY are rallying. This is not ideal for a continuation of weakness in stocks, and thus I have covered the shorts with very small profit.

Quite frustrating, as this is the fourth trade in a row that starts well but ends up being pretty much a scratch. Back to the drawing board, waiting for next set up.

Thursday 11 March 2010

Applicable to trading

Out


After hitting the sell set up late afternoon yesterday (square on the chart) we hit the limit of the time window for the signal to really work this morning.

Stats back to neutral, so decided to take position off for a small profit, inconsequential in the scheme of things but nevertheless called for. Discipline first, profits after.












Wednesday 10 March 2010

Just waiting around




















Yesterday I bought some ATM calls on the Dax, but half expecting a trap after the fast run up I was not as aggressive as i should have been.

Nevertheless, I held a basically flat p/l for most of the morning, but with very little happening when I got to the hedge of the average trading window (i.e. time based stop) I closed out the position. Surprise, after I came back to the screen 1 hr later, the Dax had gone from 5850 to 5910.

Disappointed and somewhat angry at myself for not holding on for a bit longer, I closed the computer and called it a day.

Today though, more coolly I see that I acted in exactly the right manner:

>> Bought on the signal- no ifs or buts, even though there had been a fast run up in the last week

>> Closed position at the time stop , after market had done nothing to show possible strength

So it didn't pan out, but I did not lose either, and the time stop is there so that I get out of those positions where the market is likely to go the wrong way.

Now we are right in the middle of the range, no signal as yet.

Favourite play would be for a quick rally to take out the highs from yesterday, then stats print giving me the chance to buy a number of OTM puts to keep for a few days. Should see another set up by this afternoon, or tomorrow morning at the latest.

Tuesday 9 March 2010

I'm back, and this time...



...I'll post more often, trade (profitably one hopes) and attempt to show that it can be done by an individual working independently.

I'm able to follow markets once again, as my current projects leave me time to get involved in trading .
I have no real strong view at this point in time, apart from being very watchful of stocks since the cross currents out there are pretty strong. Worries about currency crisis (pick your own favourite one), sovereign debt (same as above) and the fast approaching sound of the protectionist train... is THAT the light at the end of the tunnel?