This is the very first chart, and the first signal I publish. The idea has come about mainly because of the need for sharing ideas. Trading is a tough endeavour, ask anyone who's involved in it full time, and the lack of resources that I feel since having being cast out of paradise ( or a full service investment bank with BBLG, research, people to share ideas with, and most of all customer flows...) has meant my having to scour the Internet for like minded individuals to communicate with about trading.
I'm not the first, and certainly will not be the last to try and put market timing thoughts in a public forum, and I'm not overly worried about egg on my face for possible failures, since I'm used to the fickle nature of trading.
A quick explanation: what I do is look for areas where a confluence of factors leads me to expect a certain type of market action, within a certain time frame. I look for the "overlay", that is I look for a particular type of market action caused by the interplay of different asset classes, and what comes about at t+1, t+n when my measures line up.
You won't find the exact methodology spelled out, because I have no interest or incentive in offering an exact explanation of how I calculate my stats. Suffice it to say that I am intimately involved with the methodology, I have calculated it and know what it does best, and when it is that it's likely to blow up.
What is do not use is TA, not because of any snob value, but because it does not stand up to the scrutiny of statistical analysis, and thus I do not feel I can construct a trading method that is based on any charting rules. Same goes for indicators, momentum signals, etc.
If you believe I'm wrong happy to hear from you, but please include numerical proof and statistical analysis to support your assertions.
Any ideas about trading methodology or other matters that have to do with making a buck (or Euro, Yen, GBP etc) feel free to share, I will endeavour to answer within a reasonable time frame. Complaints about the effectiveness or otherwise of my signals are not dealt with at all: this blog is not a money making venture, I'm not selling the signals and thus will not abide anyone who feels hard done by a trade gone wrong. These are my signals, and my trades, they are not an invitation for you to follow me into what may at times be a losing proposition.
Enough said, let's start.
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